What’s brewing for 2008
Greetings,
Now the 2008 is a week old I’m going to stretch my legs, and my imagination, and take a look forward and make my prognostications about the state of beer in 2008.
As we all know the hop harvest has been very bad, and whatever supplies of not been bought up already, are going to cost for five times, at least, what it did last year. I have reliable information from two sources that hops to suppliers warned about this last year. Those brewers that were smart enough to buy futures will survive. Those brewers that were expecting to buy on the open market are going to have a difficult time surviving the year. Most heavily hit are going to be the independent brewpubs. Those brewpubs that insist on brewing traditional beers are going to find it almost impossible. However, there might be a silver lining to this. Adaptability is the key. It is going to be interesting to see the hop combinations used in many beers have traditionally used Cascade, and other popular American hops. One possibility is to go back into the history books, sharpening up brewing skills, and using flavorings for beers have not been used for over 200 years. At least two West Coast small breweries are looking into using Heather, along the lines of Scottish ales, to add flavor to their beers.If you thought some brewers were brewing unusual beers last year, this year is going to be even more interesting.
Of course the larger brewers, and by this I mean everyone from Anheuser-Busch down to Sam Adams, who locked in their hops supplies last year are not going to have to change their recipes appreciably. What is going to happen is at least a 25% increase in the retail price of beer. In urban areas for a six-pack of craft beer would sell for $8-$10, consumers are going to find the price approaching $12-$13. Do not be surprised if the price of mass-produced popular beers also goes up at least 2% or 3% in the next six months. Restaurants, bars, taverns, and other retailers have probably seen the last of the discounting from the major brewers, and double-digit profit margins.
I see continuing cooperation between major brewers and distillers. The creation of sparkling beverage based on spirits will be one way expanding product line, and developing beverage alcohol niche that was abandoned two years ago. Look for the return of “hard” slider, lemonade, and other assorted fruit beverages. This segment of the market is particularly lucrative in the spring and summer seasons. I have no idea what the possibilities will be for the autumn and winter season of 2008.
And that’s the way I see it…
Cheers!
Peter LaFrance.
( peter.lafrance@beerbasics.com )
